Macro | Global Strategy & Investment Trends en-US http://www.dinl.net http://www.dinl.net/images/Logo_DINL_RSS.gif http://www.dinl.net 144 31 2008-07-24 19:07:23 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2052 (pdf 0.2 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Per-ErikKarlsson Thu, 24 Jul 2008 15:04:18 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2051 Higher gasoline stocks have pushed the oil price lower. We close our Sell recommendation for soy beans - the position has yielded a return of 5% over the past three days. CD - Rise in gasoline inventories prolongs the slide in oil Café DINL: Espresso - Kirsti RingJensen Thu, 24 Jul 2008 11:44:26 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2050 In this edition of FX Crossroads we consider the likely impact on the NZD of a cyclical turn in monetary policy in New Zealand. We also take a closer look at NOK/SEK, providing several insights into the key drivers of the pair. Finally, we consider the impact on EUR/USD of the relative performance of the financial sectors on either side of the Atlantic. FX: Why the kiwi cannot fly, and at what level NOK/SEK will break the range Café DINL: Caffè Latte - Danske Bank, Research-Team Thu, 24 Jul 2008 11:42:05 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2049 July business surveys out of Euroland this morning surprised significantly on the downside and significantly added to the impression that economic growth - in Germany too - is slowing at a fast clip. Euroland: Surveys smell of recession Café DINL: Caffè Latte - PeterAndersen Thu, 24 Jul 2008 11:41:16 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2048 * The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 25 bps and delivered a rather dovish statement which signalled that it expects to cut the Official Cash Rate further. We recommend selling NZDUSD targeting 72.40 * Brazil hikes the SELIC rate with 75 bps to 13 % * Today’s events: Ifo and PMI indices from Germany, Retail sales from the UK and US jobless claims read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Thu, 24 Jul 2008 07:49:06 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2047 (pdf 0.2 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Per-ErikKarlsson Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:48:21 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2045   * The USD strengthens on hawkish Fed comments * CZK drops with 2.5 % against EUR * Today’s main events: BoE minutes (GBP), Fed’s Beige Book (USD), Rate announcement from the RBNZ (NZD)   read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Wed, 23 Jul 2008 07:41:14 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2044 Hurricane Dolly invigorates oil. Copper higher despite end to strike. CD - Dolly invigorates oil Café DINL: Espresso - Kirsti RingJensen Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:22:31 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2043 Speculative investors added significantly to their net short dollar positions in the week 8-15 July - which was also the week when EUR/USD reached a new record high. Net short USD positions rose to USD 20.4bn, which is the largest net short position since mid-March. Short dollar positions were added against JPY in particular, and net JPY positions went from close to neutral to the largest net long position of the G10 currencies. Meanwhile, net long EUR positions were kept broadly ... Café DINL: Caffè Latte - KasparKirkegaard Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:20:19 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2042 A busy week in terms of newsflow is coming to its end. Credit spreads have remained more or less stable compared to last week but equity markets have seen hefty volatility. The US treasury stated that it will support Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Q2 reports from large US banks are a mixed bag. In the Nordic region Q2 reports from the large Nordic banks continue to surprise on the positive side. Weekly Credit Strategy Update Café DINL: Caffè Latte - HenrikArnt Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:02:54 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2046   * American Express announced their earnings in the after-market and they were worse than expected putting pressure on the US dollar. * Wearing our macroeconomic and risk-aversion goggles make us more bearish on AUD in the longer term. * Returns have so far been very good in July.   read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Tue, 22 Jul 2008 07:43:08 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2041 (0.3 MB) Café DINL: Beans - ConradSchuller Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:59:18 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2040 * The British pound traded weaker in the beginning of the European session. Short term we are quite bearish on the pound, but we are still waiting for the timing to be right for a short GBP strategy. * As the macroeconomic calendar is quite empty today, the focus will as last week remain at the earnings announcement from the financial industry. * We expect unchanged key rate in Hungary today. read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:52:27 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2039 Last week was one of the weakest weeks for oil. No immediate solution to Iran conflict. Soy bean prices are falling due to scrapped export duties - we recommend selling. CD - Oil - its weakest week to date Café DINL: Espresso - Kirsti RingJensen Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:01:21 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2038 * , upping political pressure on the euro zone's central bank as it struggles to damp rising inflation amid signs of slowing economic growth. (WSJ) * still seem to be attracting demand from this critical constituency in the investment world. Thursday, Freddie said foreign investors -- mostly from Asia and Europe -- provided two-thirds of the bids for a $3 billion issue of notes that mature in two years. More than 85% of the foreign bidders were central banks, which invest much of their ... Café DINL: Cappuccino - JackCrooks Fri, 18 Jul 2008 17:15:24 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2037 Oil - USD 120 a barrel within reach. GDP growth in China slowed further in Q2. CD - Oil - USD 120 a barrel within reach Café DINL: Espresso - JacobJensen Fri, 18 Jul 2008 08:42:18 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2036 * Futures on US stock indices turned red as Merrill Lynch announced disappointing 2nd quarter results after the closing bell rang on Wall Street * The Turkish central bank hikes with another 50 basis points – but less hawkish. * Today’s events: 2nd quarter results from Citigroup Inc, Trade balance (EUR), Producer prices (PLN) read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Fri, 18 Jul 2008 06:42:06 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2031 Consumer prices surprised significantly on the upside in June. Annual core inflation rose to 2.4% from 2.3% in May. Headline inflation jumped to 5.0% from 4.2% in May, which is the highest level since 1991 US: A June inflation outburst Café DINL: Caffè Latte - PeterAndersen Thu, 17 Jul 2008 23:45:16 GMT