Macro | Global Strategy & Investment Trends http://www.dinl.net en-US http://www.dinl.net/images/Logo_DINL_RSS.gif http://www.dinl.net 144 31 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 10:54:19 +0100 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2683 The second half of 2008 will be remembered as the era in which justifiably panicked investors fled the global equity markets and flooded into the bond markets, particularly the U.S. Treasury market. As I write this, the migration largely continues. For those investors and market observers who put a high premium on rationality it seems perverse that so many are accepting the historically low returns offered in the U.S. Treasury market, particularly in the short end, where yields are near ... Guest Article: JohnBrowne Fri, 02 Jan 2009 23:07:29 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2683 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2682 Well, agriculturally speaking the answer is no: the United States has minimal banana production and the four leading exporters of the fruit are all located south of the Tropic of Cancer. Sadly, however, once you “peel” away the façade, the U.S. has recently embraced economic policies that could soon lead us to carrying the moniker of “banana republic.” Hanlon, being the optimist that he is, gets a little queasy when I use such phrases, but since ... Guest Article: MichaelPento Fri, 02 Jan 2009 23:06:55 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2682 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2681 Another forgotten anniversary that haunts the nation is the re-establishment of the gold standard in the United Statesby the Roosevelt administration on January 1, 1934. What? -- you may ask incredulously. Roosevelt re-introducing the gold standard in the United States? You had better believe it. That’s exactly what he did. He fixed the statutory price of gold at $35 per ounce 75 years ago. This price was observed until 1971 as it was also incorporated in several international ... Guest Article: Antal E.Fekete Fri, 02 Jan 2009 10:25:34 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2681 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2680 This is the time of year where everyone gives out stock market forecasts and this year in particular they are all over the map. David Bianco of UBS AG is calling for a 53% rally for the S&P 500 in 2009. He claims that the first "signs of a dawn of confidence" will cause a total surge in stock prices thanks to cheap valuations and Fed intervention. On the other hand regular CNBC talking head Vince Farrell thinks that "the stock market will take its time forming a bottom Guest Article: MichaelSwanson Fri, 02 Jan 2009 10:14:45 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2680 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2679 By the editors of , Casey Research If you’ve made your way over to Europe in the last few years, you may recall being inundated with flyers, billboard messages and seminar advertisements for Spanish property, particularly if you were in the UK. British buyers were scooping up ”cheap” homes in Spain at a blistering rate, reenacting the turn-of-millennium Florida boom. Builders followed the trend, doing what comes naturally to them, until there seemed to be an ... Guest Article: Casey Research Team Wed, 31 Dec 2008 12:36:31 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2679 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2678 As the year draws to a close, we can only say that we’re sure this will be a year we’ll all remember for a long time. It’ll probably fall into the category of 1974, when the country was in a steep recession and gas lines wrapped around blocks, or like 1979. At that time, inflation was raging and interest rates soared to 20%. Even though the circumstances were very different, those landmark times are well remembered and this year will be similar. Even though it’s Guest Article: Mary Anne & PamelaAden Wed, 31 Dec 2008 12:20:04 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2678 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2677 UK inflation for November as measured by the CPI continued its sharp decline, falling by 0.4% to 4.1% from the peak of 5.2% for Septembers data. The Bank of England would have been aware of the sharp fall in Octobers inflation at the earlier November MPC meeting that saw an near unprecedented , followed by a further 1% cut in December that has taken UK interest rates sharply lower from a peak of 5% in early October to stand at just 2% today. The interest rate cuts have been accompanied ... Guest Article: NadeemWalayat Wed, 31 Dec 2008 11:24:03 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2677 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2676 This week I have a special Outside the Box for you. My long-time friend Doug Casey wrote a very prescient piece back in 1997. He has updated it somewhat for today's times. The critical part is a summary of the work of Richard Strauss and (friend) John Howe and their book ). It should still be read today. It is seminal to understanding the times we live in. Doug summarized the book and makes some observations based on that understanding, many of which turned out to ... Guest Article: JohnMauldin Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:09:43 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2676 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2675 The piece at the Wall Street Journal considers why unlimited government activism to fight the intensifying recession is so universally appealing. There are a few excepts below. However, as the piece is exclusive to the WSJ, we cannot  reproduce it in its entirety. By PETER SCHIFF As recession fears cause the nation to embrace greater state control of the economy and unimaginable federal deficits, one searches in vain for debate worthy of the moment. Where there should be an historic ... Guest Article: PeterSchiff Mon, 29 Dec 2008 17:15:37 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2675 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2674 A friend was kind enough to send me the following link to an article dated October 10th 2008, written by Martin Armstrong. For those who have never heard of him, Armstrong is possibly the most knowledgeable man on the planet regarding the subject of cycles as they apply to social behaviour. He developed a complex forecasting model – based on fractal natural cycles (cycles within cycles within cycles) – which was so accurate according to Armstrong that it came to the ... Guest Article: BrianBloom Mon, 29 Dec 2008 11:33:31 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2674 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2673 Bob, what do you think of the Fed’s latest move—cutting to a flexible zero to a quarter rate? Where do you see us going? We are to the point where we are about 14 feet from going over the edge of Niagara Falls. We haven’t gone over the edge yet; we haven’t gone to a total collapse. We don’t have riots in the streets; we don’t have a revolution. That’s coming; that’s about two to three months off. Here’s what we’ve got: the Guest Article: BobMoriarty Mon, 29 Dec 2008 11:18:50 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2673 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2672 The US dollar had a big rally from July until just a few weeks ago as the dollar started an avalanche slide putting in a small dead cat bounce last week. Friday the USD closed on a 3 day low and from looking at the daily chart the beginning of another downward slide should push gold prices higher in the near future. The technical’s for the US dollar look bearish with the 50 day moving average starting lower, momentum shows divergence indicating lower prices, and stochastic is ... Guest Article: ChrisVermeulen Mon, 29 Dec 2008 08:31:17 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2672 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2670 By the editors of Anyone who has watched the price of gold lately must have felt that something was off. While public demand for bullion coins went through the roof and major bullion dealers ran out of coins to sell, the spot gold price was flat, teetering between the upper 700- and lower 800-dollar range. Managing Editor Jeff Clark of wrote in the November 2008 newsletter: Many dealers are out of 1-oz. coins, and not just here in the U.S. Londoners have been queuing up in front ... Guest Article: Casey Research Team Wed, 24 Dec 2008 13:17:39 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2670 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2669 It seems we are moving into a deflationary environment. What's your take on what's going on, and what it means for gold? My view of the markets in general changed very dramatically with the Lehman failure in mid-September. That’s when we had a real sea change, a real tipping point, if you will, from an inflationary environment to a deflationary environment. This deflationary environment is really changing things dramatically. We’re being much more selective with base Guest Article: JayTaylor Wed, 24 Dec 2008 13:17:16 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2669 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2652 On your website, it says you look for stocks that can double share price in 12 months or less. Is that still true in this bear environment? Most definitely. It’s not so easy to pick those doubles now, but I certainly think that should always be the goal in speculative resource stocks. I’ll pick stocks that I think will double in 12 months or less and stick to the way I’ve always traded; that is, when those stocks double, I sell half of my position plus enough to cover Guest Article: MickeyFulp Wed, 24 Dec 2008 07:12:27 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2652 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2671 Given the devastated state of many Americans' finances, our New Year's resolutions will take on greater significance this year. To "get out of debt" was often a casually stated goal to be set as midnight approached and forgotten soon after; today it is rightly recognized as a fundamental necessity of life. Unfortunately, the New Year's commitment to self-improvement is widely viewed with cynicism--in part because New Year's resolutions go so notoriously ... Guest Article: AlexEpstein Wed, 24 Dec 2008 00:25:52 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2671 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2668 Have you done your Christmas shopping yet? Research shows that more of us are putting it off in expectations of better prices. In other words deflationary expectations! The prices I have seen while out shopping the past few weeks are simply amazing. I have to admit to have made a few purchases for some items that I was not planning to buy just yet because prices were off by 60% or more. A few days ago a friend came in sporting a new black cashmere sweater top with ... Guest Article: JohnMauldin Tue, 23 Dec 2008 13:39:54 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2668 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2667 At one time or another we have all heard it said that "you cannot get there from here". Much the same can be said of the current state of the US economy. Every prominent economic pundit is focusing on falling demand as the economy's nemesis. Nouriel Roubini points out that "85 percent of aggregate demand — consumption and fixed investment — is now in free fall". It's even worse than that because final demand as it is calculated does not ... Guest Article: GerardJackson Tue, 23 Dec 2008 10:22:30 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2667 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2666 The American Revolution was an extraordinary event. The idea that freedom was an inherent right, that tyranny could be successfully opposed, that government could serve the people, not the few, was truly revolutionary in 1776—as it is today. The American Revolution, however, has run its course; and unless resuscitated and given new life, the American dream and the dreams of America’s founding fathers will soon be only a memory. Dreams rarely come to pass and those that ... Guest Article: Darryl RobertSchoon Tue, 23 Dec 2008 10:11:43 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2666 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2665 “One swallow does not a summer make”. (Aristotle) That may be true, but it’s possible that I saw two swallows today, and “summer” is not the season occupying my mind at present. First, there were reports from across the Northern Hemisphere (USA, Canada, Europe and China) that the sudden cold weather “shouldn’t” be as cold as is being experienced. Commentators are clearly surprised by the ferocity of the savagely ... Guest Article: BrianBloom Tue, 23 Dec 2008 09:58:00 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2665 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2664 The chart below, borrowed from Dr. Marc Faber’s December 1, 2008, is devastating. The chart shows a stunning loss of $30 trillion stock market wealth around the world. By some estimates, combined losses in commodities, stocks, bonds, real estate are greater than $60 trillion. This is beyond rescue. Chart Courtesy Marc Faber Market Commentary and TheChartstore.com It is virtually impossible to overstate the dire consequences resulting from the severity of the declines ... Guest Article: KurtKasun Mon, 22 Dec 2008 22:19:12 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2664 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2663 Friday the market closed mixed with light volume due to the holiday season. I always use the DOW (DIA) as a market indicator for the overall strength. The chart below shows a simple chart on where the market stands. Currently all the moving averages are trending down or sideways as the market trades at resistance. Prices have been drifting higher on light volume which is not a good sign for the bulls (longs). We are at a point now where the market is going to make a nice run higher or ... Guest Article: ChrisVermeulen Mon, 22 Dec 2008 08:14:05 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2663 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2662 Ever since the two Bear Stearns hedge funds defaulted 17 months ago triggering a global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has been busy putting out one fire after another. Fed chief Ben Bernanke has slashed interest rates to .25 percent, handed out billions in emergency funding to teetering insurance companies and mortgage lenders, and provided $8.3 trillion in loan guarantees to keep the financial system from collapsing. Unfortunately, nothing the Fed has done has either stabilized Guest Article: MikeWhitney Sun, 21 Dec 2008 13:01:30 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2662 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2661 in April, silver’s 200-day moving average was $14.66 and gold's was $785. To say we’ve experienced turmoil since then is something of an understatement. What’s your view of what’s happening in those markets today? Both silver and gold markets have become victims of the credit crisis, which actually started in August of 2007. Things really got going to the downside on the annual rollover of August 2008 and that has continued. If you look at gold irrespective ... Guest Article: DavidMorgan Sun, 21 Dec 2008 13:00:38 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2661 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2660 In an earlier article I explained that backwardation in gold is the flipside of the phenomenon of a drastic contraction of world trade and employment. This brings out the danger in denying the fact of gold backwardation or to belittle its significance, as most observers seem to be doing. I am reminded of the saying of the Swiss educator F.W. Foerster: “if you don’t use your eyes for seeing, later you will use them for weeping.” In this article I want to ... Guest Article: Antal E.Fekete Sun, 21 Dec 2008 12:42:31 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2660 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2659 * I Meant to Do That * Some Good News for Borrowers * Madoff May Give Us a Sell-Off * Conversations with John Mauldin * New Orleans, La Jolla, and Merry Christmas The Fed has taken interest rates to zero. They have clearly started a program of quantitative easing. What exactly does that mean? Are we all now Japanese? Is the Fed pushing on a string, as Japan has done for almost two decades? The quick answer is no, but the quick answer doesn't tell us much. We may not ... Guest Article: JohnMauldin Sun, 21 Dec 2008 12:38:24 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2659 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2658 The Federal Reserve estimates that in the past year losses in real estate, stocks and mortgages have sucked out some $7.2 trillion of wealth from the U.S. economy. Some are now putting the figure at $20 trillion. A massive recession is starting and will likely spread throughout much of the world. These forces have exerted their classic strong downward pressure on the price of gold. In addition, the $700 billion TARP fund to salvage the American financial system, and large amounts spent ... Guest Article: JohnBrowne Sat, 20 Dec 2008 11:48:08 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2658 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2657 Chief Economist, One of the most hotly debated topics among financial talking heads these days is, “Deflation or inflation, what is it going to be?” There is no question that we are currently experiencing asset price deflation and economic slowing. But we, the editors of , see this as a transitional phase. In our analysis, the truly extraordinary and historic levels of government spending and bailouts being deployed to keep the economy afloat are certain to lead to ... Guest Article: BudConrad Fri, 19 Dec 2008 10:40:06 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2657